Parameter-free COVID Model Based on Encounter Density Data

Qi-Jun Hong Projection made on June 19, 2020 Main
This is a personal project and these are my personal views.

My model projects that a second wave of COVID cases is arriving, due to easing social distancing restrictions.

Infection numbers will reach 30,000 confirmed cases/day again by end of month, and more than 50,000 confirmed cases/day by end of July, which will likely require another lockdown.

States at risk: FL, TX, AZ, SC, CA, NC, and almost all southern states...

Top 5 States by Daily New Cases Next Day June 20: CA(3480), TX(3398), FL(3299), AZ(2361), NC(1282)

Top 5 States by Daily New Cases in 10 Days June 30: FL(5616), TX(4849), CA(3969), AZ(3323), SC(1714)

Top 5 States by Daily New Cases in 20 Days July 10: FL(9792), TX(6918), AZ(4617), CA(4525), SC(3401)

Projection of the Next 20 Days

State Projection: AK AL AR AZ CA CO CT DC DE FL GA HI IA ID IL IN KS KY LA MA MD ME MI MN MO MS MT NC ND NE NH NJ NM NV NY OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX US UT VA VT WA WI WV WY
Daily new confirmed cases:

DNC

Total deaths:

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Daily Tests and Daily New Cases

(Data source: the COVID Tracking Project)

DNC

Daily New Cases in 50 US States

(Data source: the COVID Tracking Project)

DNC

DNC

DNC