Parameter-free COVID Model Based on Encounter Density Data
Qi-Jun Hong Projection made on June 19, 2020 Main
This is a personal project and these are my personal views.
My model projects that a second wave of COVID cases is arriving, due to easing social distancing restrictions.
Infection numbers will reach 30,000 confirmed cases/day again by end of month, and more than 50,000 confirmed cases/day by end of July, which will likely require another lockdown.
States at risk: FL, TX, AZ, SC, CA, NC, and almost all southern states...
Top 5 States by Daily New Cases Next Day June 20: CA(3480), TX(3398), FL(3299), AZ(2361), NC(1282)
Top 5 States by Daily New Cases in 10 Days June 30: FL(5616), TX(4849), CA(3969), AZ(3323), SC(1714)
Top 5 States by Daily New Cases in 20 Days July 10: FL(9792), TX(6918), AZ(4617), CA(4525), SC(3401)
Projection of the Next 20 Days
State Projection:
AK
AL
AR
AZ
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
IA
ID
IL
IN
KS
KY
LA
MA
MD
ME
MI
MN
MO
MS
MT
NC
ND
NE
NH
NJ
NM
NV
NY
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
US
UT
VA
VT
WA
WI
WV
WY
Daily new confirmed cases:
Total deaths:
Daily Tests and Daily New Cases
(Data source: the COVID Tracking Project)
Daily New Cases in 50 US States
(Data source: the COVID Tracking Project)
