Parameter-free COVID Model Based on Encounter Density Data
Qi-Jun Hong. Projection made on June 5, 2020 Main
My model predicts that a second wave of COVID cases is arriving. Infection numbers will reach 30,000 confirmed cases/day again by late June, and 50,000 confirmed cases/day by end of July, without another lockdown.
States at risk: CA, TX, AZ, FL, NC, SC, VA, MD, and almost all southern states...
Top 5 States by Daily New Cases Next Day June 6: CA(2537), TX(1631), FL(1172), IL(1080), NY(1034)
Top 5 States by Daily New Cases in 10 Days June 15: CA(3010), TX(2176), AZ(1608), FL(1530), NC(1402)
Top 5 States by Daily New Cases in 25 Days June 30: CA(4090), AZ(3656), TX(3636), FL(2613), NC(2460)
Projection of the Next 20 Days
State Projection:
AK
AL
AR
AZ
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
IA
ID
IL
IN
KS
KY
LA
MA
MD
ME
MI
MN
MO
MS
MT
NC
ND
NE
NH
NJ
NM
NV
NY
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
US
UT
VA
VT
WA
WI
WV
WY
Daily new confirmed cases:
Total deaths:
Daily Tests and Daily New Cases
(Data source: the COVID Tracking Project)
Daily New Cases in 50 US States
(Data source: the COVID Tracking Project)
