Parameter-free COVID Model Based on Encounter Density Data
Qi-Jun Hong. Projection made on June 4, 2020 Main
My model predicts that a second wave of COVID cases is arriving. Infection numbers will reach 30,000 confirmed cases/day again by late June, and 50,000 confirmed cases/day by end of July, without another lockdown.
States at risk: CA, TX, AZ, VA, MD, NC, FL, AL, ...
Top 5 States by Daily New Cases Next Day June 5: CA(2822), TX(1530), IL(1235), NY(1115), MA(1042)
Top 5 States by Daily New Cases in 10 Days June 15: CA(3063), TX(2506), AZ(1439), FL(1345), NC(1314)
Top 5 States by Daily New Cases in 25 Days June 30: TX(5301), CA(4164), AZ(3422), NC(2365), FL(2311)
Projection of the Next 20 Days
State Projection:
AK
AL
AR
AZ
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
IA
ID
IL
IN
KS
KY
LA
MA
MD
ME
MI
MN
MO
MS
MT
NC
ND
NE
NH
NJ
NM
NV
NY
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
US
UT
VA
VT
WA
WI
WV
WY
Daily Tests and Daily New Cases
(Data source: the COVID Tracking Project)
